Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin market cycle tops are notoriously hard to time, but combining technical and behavioral indicators can offer strong signals.
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The MVRV-Z Score, Pi Cycle Top indicator, trade volume trends, Puell Multiple, and exchange inflows accurately predict Bitcoin price cycle tops.
Bitcoin (BTC) might be approaching the final stage of its current market cycle — a dramatic final rally followed by a sharp correction and, eventually, a bear market. For many, this could be the long-awaited climax of the past four years, and major players are preparing accordingly.
Since late 2024, Bitcoin whale accumulation has surged. Glassnode data shows that the number of addresses holding over 100 BTC has jumped by almost 14%, reaching 18,200 — a level not seen since 2017. The biggest market players appear to be positioning for what could be this cycle’s final run-up.
However, riding the rally is trickier than it looks and knowing when to exit is notoriously difficult. The lure of higher price highs fuels FOMO, driving investors to buy the top, only to face painful drawdowns or even liquidations.
So, how can traders and investors spot the top before the market enters recession?
Bitcoin cycle top markers
Several technical and onchain indicators, such as MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-score, Pi Cycle Top, and trading volume trends, have historically been reliable in signaling when Bitcoin is nearing its peak.
The MVRV-Z score compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value and adjusts for volatility. A high Z-score suggests Bitcoin is significantly overvalued relative to its historical cost basis. When this indicator is at a historical high, the ensuing downward trend in Bitcoin prices is likely.
The Pi Cycle Top tracks BTC price dynamics using moving averages. When the 111-day moving average (111-SMA) crosses above twice the 350-day average (350-SMAx2), it signals overheating. In other words, when the short-term trend catches up to the long-term trajectory, a market top is in.
Historically, all previous Bitcoin bull runs started with a notable surge in MVRV Z-score, and ended with 111-SMA crossing the longer-term trend.
Additionally, lower trading volumes during price increases can be a warning sign, often signaling weakening momentum and potential for a reversal. On-balance volume (OBV), which registers cumulative volume flow, is a valuable metric for tracking this process. When OBV diverges from the price action, it is often an early reversal signal.
The second leg of the 2021 bull run was a great example. While BTC price was hitting higher highs of $68,000 (compared to the previous all-time high of $63,170), trading volumes moved in a different direction, decreasing from 710,000 BTC to 628,000 BTC. This created a bearish divergence between price and volume, suggesting that fewer market participants were supporting the rally — a classic sign of waning momentum.
Profit-taking metrics
As market cycle tops approach, long-term holders and Bitcoin miners often start locking in profits. Some valuable metrics that can track it are the Puell Multiple and exchange flows.
The Puell Multiple Indicator looks at miners’ revenue relative to its 365-day average. High readings indicate miners may start selling aggressively, and are often seen near market tops.
Large inflows to exchanges are usually signs of distribution, as investors prepare to sell their coins.
Individually, these indicators can mark various shifts in market trends. Combined, they often align with cycle tops.
Related: Sorry bears — Bitcoin analysis dismisses $107K BTC price double top
The 15% rule
Historic price activity observations might come in handy, too. Crypto market analyst Cole Garner shared his exit playbook based on whales’ behavior. His roadmap includes three steps:
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Euphoria. Bitcoin moves vertically for weeks, with massive $10,000+ daily candles.
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Whiplash. Bitcoin experiences its sharpest correction of the bull cycle. The curved parabolic trendline that’s supported the rally is broken — a clear signal that the top is likely in. Meanwhile, altcoins and meme tokens may continue pumping a little longer.
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Complacency. Measure 15% below Bitcoin’s all-time high. That’s the sell zone. Order books on major exchanges often show a wall of sell orders around this level — a likely institutional exit point.
According to Garner, the 15% (or 16%) rule works not only in crypto but in traditional markets as well.
No single indicator can pinpoint the exact moment to exit, especially in a shifting macro environment. But when multiple signals align, they become hard to ignore. The final leg of a Bitcoin bull market is thrilling, but knowing when the music might stop is key to locking in profits.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
