The bitcoin price has been chopping sideways for months, but liquidity data that has tracked this cycle almost perfectly is hinting that could soon change. Global M2, stablecoin supply, and Gold correlations all suggest BTC is building pressure for its next breakout.
Global M2 and the Bitcoin Price
The global M2 money supply has historically shown a strong link with Bitcoin cycles. Expansion tends to coincide with bull markets, while contraction or stagnation has lined up with periods of chop and downside. Over the past few months, Global M2 growth has slowed, and BTC has mirrored that with stagnant price action after hitting an all-time high near $124,000. When Global M2 accelerates again, it has consistently flowed into speculative assets, with Bitcoin one of the biggest beneficiaries.
Stablecoin Supply and Bitcoin Price Trends
Stablecoin supply within the crypto ecosystem has proven to be an even stronger indicator than Global M2. Correlations with BTC have reached above 95%, and on a year-on-year basis the alignment remains near perfect. When the rate of change in stablecoin supply crosses above its 90-day moving average, it has historically signaled an ideal period to accumulate bitcoin ahead of strong rallies. The opposite has held true as well, with contractions lining up with periods of weakness.
Gold Correlations and the Bitcoin Price
Throughout 2025, Bitcoin has most closely tracked Gold with about a 40-day lag, showing a correlation of over 92%. Gold’s relentless push to new all-time highs this year has provided a tailwind for BTC, which often follows as investors rotate into harder and more speculative assets. If this relationship holds, BTC could see a breakout toward $150,000 in early November.
US Dollar Strength vs. Bitcoin Price
While liquidity and Gold correlations have leaned bullish, the US Dollar Strength Index has been showing the opposite. Bitcoin typically trades inversely to the dollar, and the DXY has bounced in recent weeks. On a year-on-year basis, the inverse correlation stands around minus 40%. This suggests some near-term chop or downside pressure could remain, even if the larger trend favors higher prices.
The confluence of Global M2, stablecoin supply, and Gold correlations all point toward BTC being on the verge of a major breakout, with Q4 seasonality adding further weight to the bullish case. Still, conflicting signals from the dollar remind us that sideways trading and false starts are part of every cycle. The bitcoin price has a history of long consolidations before explosive moves, and current data suggests we may be right on the edge of one now.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
