Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has ventured into oversold territory multiple times against Bitcoin (BTC) in recent months, but the altcoin has yet to show any signs of finding a price bottom. The trading situation is actually quite similar to a previous scenario, and ETH’s market structure suggests that it could repeat itself in Q2 to Q3 of this year.
Ether’s repeat breakdowns point to more downside
The relative strength index (RSI) on ETH’s 3-day timeframe remains below 30, a level that typically signals a potential bounce.
However, historical patterns show that previous dips into oversold conditions have failed to mark a definitive bottom. Each instance has been followed by another leg lower, reflecting persistent bearish momentum.
ETH/BTC three-day price chart. Source: TradingView
Since mid-2024, the ETH/BTC pair has undergone repeat breakdowns, with losses of around 13%, 21%, 25%, and 19.5% occurring in rapid succession. Moreover, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs are trending lower, confirming the lack of bullish strength.
X-based market analyst @CarpeNoctom highlighted ETH’s negative price performance, noting that the ETH/BTC pair has failed to confirm a bullish divergence—when the price makes lower lows but the RSI makes higher lows—on its weekly chart.
ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/CryptoNoctom
ETH ETF outflows and onchain data hint at further weakness
The “cursed” ETH/BTC downtrend stands out when compared to the broader crypto market. This includes persistent outflows witnessed across the US-based spot ETH ETFs, as well as negative onchain data.
The net flows into the spot Ether ETFs have dropped 9.8% in March to $2.54 billion. In comparison, the spot Bitcoin ETF net flows are down 2.35% in the same period to $35.74 billion.
Source: Ted Pillows
Meanwhile, Ethereum’s gas fees—measured by daily median gas consumption on mainnet—were sitting around 1.12 GWEI as of March, down by nearly 50 times what they were just a year ago.
Ethereum median gas fees vs. ETH price (in dollar terms). Source: Nansen
“Despite the second rally of ETH price into 2024 year end, activity on mainnet as measured by gas consumption never fully recovered,” data analytics platform Nansen wrote in its latest report, adding:
“This is downstream of a few things but much of the activity has shifted to Solana and L2s over 2024.”
Nansen argued that they remain cautiously bearish on ETH due to its unfavorable risk/reward ratio compared to BTC and lower-valued altcoins with niche market focus.
A lack of demand for ETH relative to Bitcoin is further visible in its future volume data.
Notably, Bitcoin futures volume has rebounded 32% from its Feb. 23 lows, reaching $57 billion on March 18. In comparison, ETH’s trading activity remains mostly flat, according to onchain data platform Glassnode.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana futures volume. Source: Glassnode
The ETH/BTC pair could drop another 15%
ETH/BTC pair is forming a bear pennant pattern on the daily chart, characterized by a period of consolidation within converging trendlines forming after a steep decline.
Related: Standard Chartered drops 2025 ETH price estimate by 60% to $4K
A bear pennant technically resolves when the price drops below the lower trendline and falls by as much as the previous downtrend’s height. Applying the same rule on ETH/BTC brings its downside target for April to 0.01968 BTC, down 15% from the current levels.
ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Furthermore, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs remain in a sharp downward trajectory, with the ETH/BTC pair trading far below these key levels, signaling a persistent bear market structure.
Despite the looming downside risk, a bullish invalidation could occur if ETH/BTC breaks above the pennant’s upper resistance and flips the 50-day EMA into support.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
