Bitcoin’s (BTC) relief rally to $91,000 appears to be cooling, but analysts say the short-term trend for BTC “remains up.”
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin must next take out immediate resistance between $92,000 and $95,000.
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Spot volume and trading activity must recover to lift BTC back into six figures.
Bitcoin bulls must reclaim the yearly open first
The BTC/USD pair has been trading within a tight range between $90,300 and $92,000 since recovering from multimonth lows of $80,000, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Private wealth manager Swissblock said that Bitcoin’s break below the yearly open at $93,300 was the “real shift” in trend.
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The bullish case for BTC now hinges on “holding the defensive zone at $83K–$85K, where strong demand must appear for a bottom to form,” Swissblock wrote, adding:
“The trend only flips if BTC reclaims $94K–$95K.”
Glassode’s cost basis distribution heatmap reveals resistance at $93,000-$96,000, where investors acquired about 500,000 BTC.
Above that, the next major barrier is between “$100K-$108K, where typically some degree of resistance from recent buyers is expected,” Glassnode said in a Friday X post, adding:
“Breaking above the top-buyers’ supply clusters is a key prerequisite for regaining momentum toward a new ATH.”
As Cointelegraph reported, the bulls see $97,000-$98,000 as the resistance zone that will confirm the recovery, with their sights set on the next target at $100,000, supported by encouraging futures market signals.
Bitcoin’s onchain transfer volume falls 20%
The market remains in a cool-down phase, with Bitcoin onchain transfer volume and the spot trading volume still down.
The seven-day moving average of onchain transfer volume has dropped by about 20% to $87 billion over the last week.
Additionally, the current daily spot trading volume stands at about $12.8 billion, significantly lower than the cyclical peaks seen in this bull market.
The chart below reveals that the latest push above $91,000 was not accompanied by a surge in spot volume, reflecting reduced investor engagement.
This divergence underscores the lack of speculative intensity required to drive prices higher.
An increase in spot volume reflecting heightened trading activity on exchanges would indicate stronger investor demand and market conviction, as seen in past rallies where spot volume surges preceded price breakouts.
As Cointelegraph reported, spot markets were entering recovery mode, with Bitcoin’s taker cumulative volume delta (CVD) edging back to neutral from negative territory.
If this turns buyer-dominant, Bitcoin could experience a sustained rally as seen between May and July when the BTC price rallied 32% to its previous all-time high around $123,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
