A crypto analyst argues that maximum pain for Bitcoin this cycle will be a fall to $55,000, based on technical indicators — rather than the $35,000 that some predict.
A fall to $35,000, as predicted by some, would represent a 72% retracement.
It has happened before. Bitcoin fell by 77% from a high of $69,000 in November 2021 to a bottom of $15,500 a year later in November 2022.
However, analyst “Sykodelic” told his 62,000 X followers on Tuesday that predictions of a Bitcoin plunge to $35,000 in 2026 were “absolute rubbish.”
“For Bitcoin to retrace 75% it actually has to fully expand, and this cycle, it just did not do that,” he said, explaining that those kinds of retraces are only possible because the level of expansion — indicated by relative strength index (RSI) — “makes that level of contraction possible.”
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently down 31% from its early October peak of $126,000, which is not unusual even in a bull market.
Bollinger Bands are a key level
Bitcoin prices have never fallen below the Bollinger Bands on the monthly time frame, the analyst said.
They compared the cycle to 2017, which saw huge gains, but the retrace still didn’t fall below the monthly lower Bollinger Band. After the weakest expansion ever, why would it have the deepest contraction, they questioned.
“Basically, absolute worst-case scenario and if this is a big bad bear… if we close this monthly candle below the mid line, then we could be expecting a maximum bottom of $55k.”
Others argue Bitcoin correction won’t be that deep
Jeff Ko, chief analyst at the CoinEx exchange, told Cointelegraph even a correction to $55,000 is unlikely, arguing that “the bear-case scenario would see Bitcoin revisiting the $65,000 to $68,000 levels.”
He argued that the traditional four-year cycle structure is breaking, and with Bitcoin now far more institutionalized, “I do not expect another 70%–80% drawdown from all-time highs.”
“Market depth, ETF participation, and a structurally broader investor base all suggest that future corrections will be shallower and more orderly compared to previous cycles.”
Related: This indicator suggests we’re out of the Bitcoin bull market
Catastrophic decline if support zone breaks
Meanwhile, Augustine Fan, the head of insights at crypto trading software service provider SignalPlus, was bearish if the “significant support area around the $72,000 to $75,000” breaks down.
“A break below will likely lead to catastrophic stops with unknown consequences for now, given the amount of DAT stop selling, impact on Strategy’s position, and viability given their significant implied losses,” he told Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin was holding around the $87,000 level at the time of writing, recovering slightly from its fall to $84,000 on Monday.
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