Bitcoin (BTC) faces a “do-or-die” price point if 2026 becomes a classic bear market year.
Key points:
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Bitcoin four-year price cycles and bear markets remain relevant, the latest power law analysis says.
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2026 may see a BTC price support showdown with $65,000 as the key level.
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History demands price “catching up” to power-law targets.
Bitcoin bear markets to stay around
New analysis by Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, flags $65,000 as the next key BTC price battleground.
After hugging its power law trendline for much of the current bull market, BTC/USD could now be due for a retest of a lower support line — one currently at $45,000.
“It is following the internet S-curve a lot closer now than the power law curve,” Timmer acknowledged.
Power law attempts to give price a “fair value,” and history shows that trips toward the support line have often accompanied long-term bottoms.
“For now, the line in the sand for Bitcoin is $65k (previous high), and below that $45k. The latter is the power law trendline,” Timmer continued.
“That’s still far away but if Bitcoin consolidates for the next year, that trendline could get closer to $65k and could become a do-or-die line in the sand for Bitcoin.”
The analysis called into question whether or not Bitcoin is still subject to four-year price cycles. For Timmer, halving cycles are impacting price less and less with time, but bear markets will still happen.
Responding, executive David Eng agreed that bear markets are set to remain a feature of Bitcoin as a maturing asset.
“The idea that Bitcoin has ‘graduated’ into a no-bear-market S-curve price regime misunderstands how prices form,” he argued.
“Bitcoin is a scarce fixed asset inside the financial system, not a standalone S-curve like the internet.”
Eng added that Bitcoin now faces longer price cycles and lower overall volatility.
”Compressed” BTC price needs a rebound
As Cointelegraph reported, four-year cycles became a topic of debate among the Bitcoin community after 2025 finished in the red.
Related: Bitcoin RSI hints at $105K BTC price rebound as bull signals multiply
BTC/USD has never ended a post-halving year lower than when it began, and reactions include dropping the cycle theory altogether.
Eng, however, predicts that “compressed” power law readings demand an upward relief rally.
“Bitcoin isn’t stalling it’s coiling below its long-term growth law, and history says resolution comes by price catching up, not the law giving way,” he told X followers this weekend.
Bitcoin is Compressed Below Its Growth Law, and Compression Always Resolves Upward
Bitcoin still obeys a single power law with extraordinary stability (R² ≈ 0.96) across 15+ years bubbles and crashes are oscillations, not regime changes.
• Spot (~$90.5k) is ~25% below… pic.twitter.com/OWVwG4Vgas
— David 🇺🇸 (@david_eng_mba) January 10, 2026
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