Bitcoin (BTC) recrossed $82,000 into the Feb. 28 Wall Street open as analysis pointed to a March BTC price comeback.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
BTC price pushes past $82,000 on PCE relief
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD bouncing more than 5% from its latest multimonth lows of $78,197 on Bitstamp.
Ongoing selling pressure only eased as the latest US macroeconomic data conformed to expectations on inflation.
The January print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, known to be the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, came in at 0.3% and 2.5% month-on-month and year-on-year, respectively.
Markets immediately sensed relief after several recent overshoots in inflation data. In a boost to both risk assets and crypto, US dollar strength began falling from local highs of 107.45, a level not seen in two weeks.
US dollar index (DXY) 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“This marks the first decline in PCE inflation since September 2024,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of a reaction on X.
Kobeissi described both the PCE and core PCE results as “constructive.”
“However, since the data was released, interest rate cut expectations are little changed,” it noted.
“Volatility is ramping up.”
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the odds of a rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting at just 5.5% at the time of writing.
Macro tightening “fully reflected” in $80,000 Bitcoin
Commenting on the impact that the macro climate could have on Bitcoin, meanwhile, Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, had good news for bulls.
Related: When will Bitcoin price bottom?
“Everything happening in markets right now, especially in crypto, is a direct consequence of the tightening of financial conditions in Q4 last year,” he argued in part of his latest X analysis on the day.
“When financial conditions tighten, liquidity gets drained, and economic surprises start to slow.”
BTC/USD vs. GMI Financial Conditions index % performance. Source: Julien Bittel/X
Bittel suggested that the “scare” affecting markets would not last much longer.
“Here’s the thing: This will all reverse next month,” he forecast.
“Financial conditions have been easing rapidly over the past two months – dollar down, bond yields down, oil down – and that’s setting the stage for a recovery in the data soon. Remember, financial conditions are always leading.”
Bitcoin at $80,000, he concluded, means tighter conditions were “fully reflected” in BTC price action.
“Everyone’s already on the same side of the trade – sentiment is extremely bearish, and Bitcoin is sitting at an RSI of 23, the most oversold level since August 2023,” he noted.
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