Key takeaways:
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Ethereum holders are back in the black, increasing the chances of a rally to $4,000.
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Ether sell pressure risk exists around $3,800, a resistance level that may delay the bulls.
Ether’s (ETH) rebound to $3,600 over the weekend pushed its value above its active realized price, implying that the average ETH holder is no longer in the red. Is this enough fuel for the bulls to push the ETH price above $4,000?
Ethereum trades above its active cost basis
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that Ether’s price rose 20% to $3,650 on Sunday from its four-month low of $3,050 reached on Nov. 4.
The recovery was fueled by Trump’s promise of $2,000 tariff dividend payments and optimism toward the possible end of the US government shutdown. This rebound has also pushed ETH above its active realized price, currently at $3,545, according to data from Glassnode.
Related: Ethereum network gas fees drop to just 0.067 gwei amid slowdown
The average ETH holder returning to profit after unrealized losses provides meaningful financial relief for many holders, signaling a bullish outlook.
Historically, breaking above this level shifted market sentiment from “fear,” reducing sell pressure from underwater holders and encouraging holding.
The chart below shows that when the price reclaimed its active realized price after briefly dipping below it in January 2024, it rallied 89% to $4,100 from $2,165.
Holding above $3,500 is crucial for the bulls to ensure a potential retest at $4,000.
Other key areas of support levels for the ETH/USD pair lie around $2,870, $2,530, and $1,800, based on Ether’s extreme deviation pricing bands.
The ETH bears will defend the $3,800 level
According to Ether’s cost basis distribution data, investors hold about 4.2 million ETH at an average cost of between $3,600 and $3,815, creating a potential resistance zone.
This concentration suggests that many investors may sell at breakeven, potentially stalling Ether’s upward momentum.
Traders say ETH must flip the resistance between $3,700 and $3,900 into support to target higher highs above $4,000.
“$ETH failed to reclaim the $3,700 level and is now going down,” said crypto analyst Ted Pillows in an X post on Tuesday, adding:
“In case ETH is able to reclaim the $3,700 level, it’ll tap the $4,000-$4,100 liquidity zone.”
Michael van de Poppe said the ETH/USD pair “needs to break the $3,800-3,900 area,” to trigger a move toward all-time highs.
Meanwhile, Jelle said the bulls need to “step in further” and push the ETH price to $4,000.
“The sooner we get back above $4K, the better.”
As Cointelegraph reported, Tom Lee’s BitMine accelerated its ETH accumulation last week, adding 110,288 Ether to its $12.5 billion treasury as it targets 5% of the total supply.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
