Key takeaways:
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Ether treasury companies are sitting on millions of dollars of unrealized losses, raising concerns about their sustainability.
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Ether treasury companies trading below NAVs signal eroding confidence, potentially pressuring ETH price further.
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An ETH price fractal hints at $2,500 as the 200-week moving average becomes the last line of defense.
Ether (ETH) fell 30% over the past 30 days, dropping below $3,000 to a four-month low of $2,806 on Thursday. Technical indicators and institutional demand are leaning bearish, increasing the odds of a further correction below $2,500.
Ether price mirrors a 2022-era fractal
ETH price is facing a four-week losing streak as a bearish fractal from 2022 hints a a deeper correction for the altcoin. A market fractal is a repetitive pattern that allows traders to identify trend reversals in the charts. Ether is currently painting a bearish fractal setup, initially observed in 2022.
Related: ETH falls into ‘buy zone,’ but volatility-averse traders take a wait-and-see approach
The chart below illustrates that the pattern consists of a sharp drop from its 2021 all-time high at $4,800, with the price bottoming around the 200-week SMA.
The same scenario is playing out in 2025, with the price having dropped 41% from its current all-time high of $4,955 reached in August. This suggests that a deeper correction is in the cards with the 200-week SMA at $2,450 being the last line of defense for bulls.
Meanwhile, Ether’s super trend indicator has sent a “sell” signal on its weekly chart, an occurrence that last led to a 66% drop in price when it occurred in March 2025.
A similar confirmation in January 2022 was followed by an 82% price drawdown, bottoming just below the 200-week SMA, as shown in the chart below.
If history repeats itself, ETH could see a deeper correction to as low as $2,500, driven by decreased institutional demand and waning onchain activity.
Ethereum treasury companies are underwater
Ether’s sharp pullback has pushed the average Ether treasury company into the red, resulting in millions of dollars in paper losses.
Data from Capriole Investments shows that these companies have seen negative returns of 25% to 48% on their ETH holdings. The top 10 DAT companies are in the red in the weekly and daily time frames, as shown in the chart below.
BitMine Immersion Technologies, holding 3.56 million ETH (2.94% of the circulating supply), has seen a -28% and -45% return on its investments over the last seven days and 30 days, respectively.
BitMine is currently down $1,000 per purchased ETH, implying a cumulative unrealized loss of $3.7 billion on its total holdings.
🚨 LATEST: BitMine is sitting on a $3.7B unrealized loss from its massive $ETH position.
Will we see more DATs emerge in the coming months despite the risks? pic.twitter.com/11V5YZT2qO
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) November 20, 2025
SharpLink, The Ether Machine and Galaxy Digital also sit on millions in losses, down 50% to 80% from their yearly highs.
Capriole Investments’ data also shows that the market value to net asset value (mNAV) — a metric used to assess the valuation of digital asset treasuries — of most of these companies has plunged below 1, signaling an impaired capital-raising ability.
Data from StrategicETHreserve.xyz indicates that collective holdings of strategic reserves and ETFs have dropped by 280,414 ETH since Nov. 11.
As Cointelegraph reported, global exchange-traded products, including US spot Ether ETFs, experienced the largest weekly outflows since February, reinforcing the continued decline in institutional demand for ETH.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
