Key takeaways:
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XRP price dropped 7.5% this week despite the upcoming Ripple Swell event, which has historically sparked pre-conference rallies.
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XRP’s rounded top chart pattern projects a drop to $2.09 if support levels fail to hold.
Ripple’s annual Swell conference, scheduled for Nov. 4-5 in New York, promises a lineup that marks one of the strongest intersections of crypto with US policy and traditional finance.
However, XRP (XRP) bulls have largely ignored the possible impacts of the event, with the price falling 7.5% since Monday, while continuing its prevailing downtrend, as shown below.
Ripple’s Swell Conference vs. XRP price
Ripple’s Swell 2025 stands as a pivotal gathering for the role of blockchain in regulated finance, drawing over 600 attendees from 40 countries, including White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt, as well as executives from BlackRock, Nasdaq, Citi, and BNY Mellon.
We’re excited to welcome @patrickjwitt from the White House’s Digital Assets Council to our keynote speaker lineup at Ripple Swell 2025.
This is a conversation you can’t miss.
LAST CHANCE: The deadline to request your invitation to attend is tomorrow, October 24th.
Join us in… pic.twitter.com/8n3s70tdSU
— Ripple (@Ripple) October 23, 2025
The agenda highlights the XRP Ledger’s (XRPL) alignment with ISO 20022 standards, emphasizing its utility in tokenizing real-world assets (RWAs) and facilitating cross-border payments.
Related: Without Bitcoin, what happens to Ether and XRP?
There will also be a session titled “The Impact of Tokenized Financial Assets on Capital Markets,” featuring BlackRock director of digital assets Maxwell Stein alongside Moody’s executives.
A live demo of stablecoin settlements on XRPL and keynotes from CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Nasdaq’s Adena Friedman underscore XRP’s potential as a bridge for institutional liquidity, potentially accelerating adoption in treasury management and DeFi integrations.
Historically, Swell events have sparked short-term surges in XRP prices, often driven by partnership announcements and hype. In 2017, ahead of the San Francisco edition, XRP price doubled from $0.20 to over $0.40 on the launch of xRapid.
The 2018 Toronto event saw XRP climb 50% in the lead-up to the conference, driven by announcements, including MoneyGram’s expansion.
Even in 2019’s Singapore gathering, XRP gained 32% in the lead-up, buoyed by RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan’s keynote on global remittances. However, post-event volatility led to a 30% correction in a classic “sell-the-news” scenario.
While 2024’s Miami Swell event saw modest 10% gains, reflecting the SEC overhang, it was expected that 2025’s regulatory clarity, following the appeal dismissal, could amplify echoes of past booms.
This doesn’t appear to be the case as the XRP price remains muted below $3.
XRP price risks a 16% drop
XRP’s chart paints a bearish picture in lower time frames, trading at $2.49 after testing the $2.37 support level, with an 8% decline in volume over the last 24 hours signaling waning buyer conviction.
A rounding top pattern on the four-hour chart formed since Oct. 22 hints at a continuation of the downtrend. The relative strength index’s position below the 50 mark, and the MACD’s cross below the middle line, are hinting toward more downside.
The bears are now focused on pulling XRP back to the pattern’s neckline at $2.37. A four-hour candlestick drop below this level would pave the way for a further decline toward the measured target of the rounded top at $2.09, representing a 16% drop from the current price.
Key moving averages acting as resistance are the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) at $2.55 and the 200-period SMA at $2.84.
As Cointelegraph reported, continued rejection from the 20-day EMA at $2.53 will suggest that the bears are in control, risking XRP’s drop to $2.20 or lower.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
