Solana’s (SOL) onchain flows are flashing a powerful supply-side shift with the crypto asset hovering just above the $120 support zone, but market participation still needs to intensify to turn this structural advantage into upside momentum.
Key takeaways:
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$2.12 billion USDC flowed into Binance while $1.11 billion SOL exited, forming a textbook bullish structure around the $120 level.
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SOL futures volume fell 3% while BTC and ETH saw 43% and 24% jumps, signaling sluggish trader participation despite improving spot mechanics.
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Relative unrealized profit retreated to October 2023 lows, indicating a marketwide profitability reset similar to prior accumulation phases.
Stablecoin inflows, SOL supply crunch underpin $120 floor
Last week, Solana witnessed a striking liquidity divergence on Binance, with USDC (USDC) inflows ballooning to $2.12 billion, while SOL outflows exceeded $1.11 billion. CryptoQuant data indicated that this dynamic is crucial for defending major support levels, including $120, above which the price has been stabilizing.
Large stablecoin inflows typically represent pending buy-side liquidity from whales or institutional entities who are partially sidelined. Meanwhile, native token outflows reduce exchange-side sell pressure, reinforcing the idea of a structural supply crunch.
The fact that USDt (USDT) saw a $450 million outflow further underscored a shift toward USDC-driven capital deployment in Solana ecosystems, a trend historically aligned with constructive market behavior.
Despite a tightening supply profile, follow-through demand remains essential. Without active spot buyers stepping in, supply-side strength alone may not sustain broader directional moves.
According to Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap, a large tranche of buyers recently bought about 17.8 million SOL at a cost basis of $142 and another 16 million SOL at $135.
These clusters act similarly to onchain support and resistance zones:
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Large clusters below price leads to strong support, as many holders are either in profit or near breakeven and have an incentive to defend.
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Large clusters above price leads to potential resistance, as trapped liquidity may sell into recovery.
Thus, at the moment, SOL needs to reclaim $135 and $142 for the recent buyers to act as strong fundamental support levels.
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Futures activity stalls while SOL PnL resets
While onchain flows show accumulation, derivatives activity inferred a more cautious environment. SOL futures volume slipped 3%, even as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) recorded sizable increases of 43% and 24%.
This imbalance suggested SOL traders have been unusually quiet, a contrast to the capital entering ecosystems via stablecoins.
Meanwhile, relative unrealized profit has dropped to October 2023 levels, when SOL traded near $20. Such profitability resets may imply that speculative excess has been wiped out, leaving the market in an attractive reaccumulation zone.
Net Realized Profit/Loss also printed heavy negative readings in November, mirroring the deep realized losses seen during the February–April 2025 bottom-range formation. Historically, such patterns precede stronger recovery cycles, but traders would need to step back in to convert positioning into upward momentum.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
