Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin failed to break the $98,000 resistance amid increased profit-taking.
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BTC price needs to close above $95,000 on the daily chart for a push to $100,000.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price failed to break above resistance at $98,000 on May 3. Since April 22, BTC prices have formed daily candle highs between $93,000 and $97,900, but they could not close above $97,440.
Bitcoin price action has been choppy and within a narrow range for the past few days. With elevated profit-taking and a lot of supply in profit, markets could see volatile price swings toward key BTC price levels over the next few days.
Realized profits above “statistical levels”
Senior researcher at Glassnode, CryptoVizArt.₿, said that Bitcoin’s rally to the $93,000-96,000 range has “pushed the profit-taking volume above the statistical levels.”
In other words, the Realized Profit/Loss ratio shows that the volume of Bitcoin being sold at a profit exceeds historical norms. This suggests heightened selling activity by investors locking in gains, often signaling potential market tops and increased sell-side pressure.
The chart below indicates that “for every dollar realized in loss, more than 9 dollars was realized in profit!” CryptoVizArt.₿ explained, adding:
“The fact that the price is still above $93,000 is very surprising, which in my humble opinion is also risky.”
As reported by Cointelegraph, BTC selling has been ramping up near the $95,000 level over the past few days as short-term traders book profits.
Crypto analyst Checkmate said that Bitcoin’s current market is at a key “decision point,” so Bitcoin must clear this price zone in the near term to avoid another major correction.
Related: Bitcoin price cools going into Fed rate hike week, HYPE, AAVE, RNDR, FET still look bullish
Bitcoin’s supply in profit now stands at 86%, as per data from Glassnode. This high percentage often signals a bullish phase. However, it also indicates potential risks: when supply in profit exceeds 80-90%, historical patterns show increased profit-taking, particularly by short-term holders, which can lead to corrections.
Given these two scenarios, Checkmate pointed out:
“We’re sitting right in the middle of a decision point, and all it will take is one big red or green candle from here to convince people of a lower high, or bull continuation, respectively.”
Key Bitcoin price levels to watch
Bitcoin must flip the $98,000 resistance level into support to target higher highs above $100,000.
But first, the BTC/USD pair must close above $95,000 on the daily chart. BTC’s price dropped below this level on May 4, driven by profit-taking after the rally to $97,000.
One positive catalyst for the bulls could be continued demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Bitcoin ETFs registered $1.8 billion in net inflows last week, per Farside Investors’ data.
Another catalyst could come from Wednesday’s Fed interest rate decision meeting.
Meanwhile, the bears will attempt to keep the $98,000 resistance in place to increase the likelihood of pulling the price below $92,000. The immediate target below the previous range lows is at $90,000, i.e., the convergence point of the 100-day and 200-day SMAs.
Below $90,000, the next key area of interest remains between $85,000 and $75,000. Reaching $75,000 would erase all the gains after the 90-day tariff pause.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
