Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin bulls aim to push BTC above $110,000 by May 30 to capitalize on $4.8 billion in call options.
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Spot BTC ETF inflows and weak put positioning give bulls a strong edge in the monthly expiry.
Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching its largest monthly options expiry of 2025, with total exposure reaching $13.8 billion. This event gives bulls a chance to secure Bitcoin’s price above $110,000, as bears were caught off guard by a 25% rally over the past 30 days.
The open interest in Bitcoin put (sell) options stands at $6.5 billion, but 95% of these positions are set below $109,000. Therefore, if Bitcoin’s price holds near current levels, less than $350 million worth of put options will remain relevant at expiry.
Conversely, the open interest in Bitcoin call (buy) options up to $109,000 totals $3.8 billion. Still, this imbalance does not mean every call option holder was betting on Bitcoin’s rise. Some traders may have sold these options as a way to hedge their exposure above certain price levels.
Among the most significant option strategies traded at Deribit in the past two weeks is the “short call,” which is often used by investors seeking a fixed-income return as long as Bitcoin’s price stays above a particular threshold. Similarly, the “bull call spread” strategy hedges against downside risk by sacrificing gains above a certain price.
Strong Bitcoin ETF inflows reduce the odds of further price decline
If Bitcoin maintains the $109,000 level, most bullish strategies should deliver positive results in the May options expiry. However, bears may try to influence BTC futures markets to limit their losses as the expiry date approaches.
The total open interest in Bitcoin futures is currently $79 billion, showing strong demand for short (sell) positions. Still, this strategy could backfire if Bitcoin rises above $110,000, as bears might be forced to close their positions.
Net inflows of $1.9 billion into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) between May 20 and May 22 indicate that demand above $105,000 remains robust. Ultimately, bears’ main hope lies in a weaker macroeconomic environment, which could increase risk aversion and reduce demand for Bitcoin.
Related: Bitcoin hits new highs in the absence of ‘unhealthy’ leverage use — Will the rally continue?
Bitcoin bulls aim for $110,000 by May 30
Below are four likely scenarios based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances and do not account for complex strategies.
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Between $102k and $105k: $2.75 billion in calls (buy) vs. $900 million in puts (sell). The net result favors the call instruments by $1.85 billion.
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Between $105k and $107k: $3.3 billion calls vs. $650 million puts, favoring calls by $2.65 billion.
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Between $107k and $110k: $3.7 billion calls vs. $350 million puts, favoring calls by $3.35 billion.
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Between $110k and $114k: $4.8 billion calls vs. $120 million puts, favoring calls by $4.7 billion.
Bulls can maximize their gains by driving BTC above $110,000, which could help set a new all-time high. However, the ongoing bullish momentum depends on developments in the ongoing tariff war, which has been a key focus in recent weeks.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
