XRP has jumped roughly 25% off its recent lows (at one point), and Cryptoinsightuk co-founder Will Taylor says the move has reopened the debate over whether XRP is starting a larger impulse that could ultimately point toward the $8–$12 zone or whether it’s a short-term squeeze that needs to cool first.
Taylor said he’s “up in the air” on the immediate next step, even as he remains long. His hesitation is rooted in a simple conflict: the lower timeframes look stretched, but XRP has a track record of accelerating after momentum spikes rather than immediately mean-reverting.
What The XRP Charts Tell Us
On the hourly, Taylor noted XRP’s RSI has repeatedly hit overbought territory and “we’ve crossed bearish on the hour,” a short-term warning that often precedes pullbacks or sideways digestion.
On the four-hour, he described RSI as “about as high as I’ve pretty much ever seen it,” and tried to contextualize what happened the last few times XRP got similarly overheated. In one prior episode, he said XRP pulled back briefly, then continued higher by “a further like 36%.” In another, he described a rally sequence where price consolidated and then ran again, adding “another 129%” into the next leg.
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That’s the core of his dilemma: overbought conditions can be a sell signal in many markets, but Taylor argues XRP’s strongest phases often begin with RSI entering overbought, not ending there. “When XRP’s daily RSI gets overbought, XRP rips in price a lot of the time,” he said, pushing back on the reflex to fade strength.
On the daily chart, he highlighted what he sees as a constructive technical shift. XRP has closed above a short-term range that previously capped price for multiple days, and printed its “highest daily close in XRP since the 13th of November.” Taylor emphasized how quickly XRP cleared that ceiling this time: after multiple failed attempts in the prior weeks, “we break straight through.”
XRP Price Targets
From there, Taylor laid out the upside logic using historical RSI analogs. He said three previous daily overbought signals during the current cycle coincided with major extensions, citing moves of roughly 414% in one instance and 36% and 49% in others. He framed this as pattern recognition rather than prediction: “this is complete fact,” he said, referring to the historical relationship between daily RSI overbought and subsequent upside but he still translated those rough percentages into possible zones.
A smaller continuation on the order of ~39% would, in his words, take XRP to around $3.13. A larger extension could revisit all-time highs near $3.66. The most aggressive interpretation, aligned with his broader wave thesis, would move XRP “up towards our goals of like $8 to $12 for this wave.”
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Structurally, Taylor said the market is at a point where multiple Elliott Wave counts can be argued. He sketched competing interpretations: XRP may be working through an ABC-type move off the lows, may be approaching a fifth wave higher, or could still be in an extended third wave within a larger five-wave advance. “My honest answer is right now I don’t know,” he said.
Even without committing to a wave count, Taylor said the “impulsive” character of the rally stands out. He pointed to “the length of these candles supported by volume” across exchanges, arguing the move looks different from earlier, more corrective price action. For him, the practical test is near-term continuation: he wants to see “some more really aggressive candles” over the next day or two to support the idea that XRP is leading a broader leg rather than squeezing and stalling.
Liquidity is the other piece he’s watching. Taylor said XRP has “on the hourly taken most of our upside liquidity,” while flagging downside liquidity zones around $1.70 down to $1.66. He said in established trends he would “expect a continuation to the upside,” but those downside pools, combined with stretched RSI and nearby resistance on XRP’s relative pairs, keep him from treating the current level as a clean new entry.
Taylor said these mixed signals are why he has considered reducing leverage on his XRP long, noting he is “90% spot.” His bottom line was simple: XRP has delivered “a fantastic aggressive move,” but the next few sessions matter.
29 minutes of $XRP TA. pic.twitter.com/aJ4yiC7Sdr
— Cryptoinsightuk (@Cryptoinsightuk) January 6, 2026
If XRP keeps printing strong daily candles and the relative pairs start closing above resistance, his $8–$12 zone framing remains a live bull-case roadmap. If not, the same overbought signals and nearby liquidity pockets increase the odds that XRP first resets through consolidation or a retracement before any larger leg can develop.
At press time, XRP traded at $2.25.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
